Steel Futures Market Update

Steel Futures Sentiment Continues to Soften

Unclear spot market direction is weighing on forward prices CME Busheling futures continued to slide on Tuesday. A pause in the wider scrap market rally increased concerns that supply will catch up more quickly with demand than some previously envisaged. Plus the narrow forward differential with US HRC futures reduces the potential for another run … Continue reading Steel Futures Sentiment Continues to Soften

Nearby LME Metal Margin Jumps

Cautious Scrap sentiment provides some relief to the EAF diff Metal Margin futures exhibited the most interesting moves amongst the steel futures complex on Monday, which was a relatively quiet affair for most instruments. Lower iron ore and mainland China steel pricing undermined the recent bout of bullishness that has characterised paper trading – for … Continue reading Nearby LME Metal Margin Jumps

US Futures Sell Off on BF-Restart News

Pressure renews on CME Metal Margin futures as paper trade anticipates battle for market share US EAF Complex futures dropped from yesterday’s highs as the paper market digested news of blast furnace restarts on Wednesday. And CME Metal Margin futures were battered lower again with paper traders anticipating an unpleasent fight for market share. Nonetheless … Continue reading US Futures Sell Off on BF-Restart News

Spot Scrap pushes higher, US BFs schedule restarts

CME EAF Contangoes may come under pressure The spot market for deep sea scrap continued to push higher on Tuesday, with reports of new cargo purchases well above $260/mt CFR Turkey and both LME EAF forward curves shifting further into Backwardation. US steel futures trading was compratively quiet, dominated by buy-side interest in the early … Continue reading Spot Scrap pushes higher, US BFs schedule restarts

Steel Futures Lethargic, Shrug Off Iron Ore Rally

5% jump in the spot price for ore fails to stimulate a discernable gains in associated markets Monday trading began with spot iron ore prices surging out of the gates, following news that more than 10% of Vale’s output in Brazil has been shuttered due to the spread of COVID. Considering the news, steel futures … Continue reading Steel Futures Lethargic, Shrug Off Iron Ore Rally

Unclear spot direction leads to more pronounced Contango

Steel Futures remain bid at a premium to spot before the weekend but confidence is less notable Steel futures tended further towards Contango on Friday when the physical market failed to renew its vigour on the back of lower Chinese onshore prices. LME Rebar futures were the exception, with news of fresh bulk Turkish export … Continue reading Unclear spot direction leads to more pronounced Contango

Steel Futures drift lower

The iron ore rout has disarmed forward price bullishness With iron ore futures drifting lower again on Thursday there was no clear direction for Steel Futures, with LME EAF futures softening slightly while US HRC futures found some longer-dated buy-side support. The impact on Metal Margin futures is seemingly one of normalisation, with forward implied … Continue reading Steel Futures drift lower

Scrap Futures Collapse

Prime & obsolete scrap futures melt down on increased Metal Margin scrutiny It didn’t take much to derail the steel futures rally – iron ore dropped back below $100/mt on Wednesday and the raw materials side of the segment collapsed. LME Scrap and CME Busheling futures led the complex lower, with prime futures printing some … Continue reading Scrap Futures Collapse

Iron Ore Drags the Segment Higher

Relative-value traders push scrap into Contango Bullishness from the iron ore market is clearly spreading, with all steel futures trading higher on Monday and LME Scrap futures sustaining an aggresive Contango despite another improvement in spot market prices. This instrument continues to trade to the benefit of physcal cargo accumulators – relative value traders are … Continue reading Iron Ore Drags the Segment Higher

EAF futures pinch continues

Tight raw materials supply remains at odds with poor finished products demand Steel futures continue to hover in a holding pattern as the battle between tight raw materials supply and poorly demand for finished products plays out. LME paper traders remain convinced that tightness in supply won’t just push scrap prices higher, but cause higher … Continue reading EAF futures pinch continues

Scrap Contango continues to shine, despite some selling

Front month edges down but still plenty of Carry available Once again LME Scrap futures dominated the attention of the paper trade on Wednesday, with an initial extension in the nearby Contango turning into a small sell-off as the market approached close. Although the front month finished the trade down on the day, tradeable value … Continue reading Scrap Contango continues to shine, despite some selling

LME Scrap Contango grows again

The opportunity for Cash & Carry is glaring The extreme nearby Contango for LME Scrap futures continued to dominate attention amongst steel futures trading on Tuesday – after all, the physical spot market has shown signs of softening over the past few days and the front month premium that is now trading is equivalent to … Continue reading LME Scrap Contango grows again

Bulk exporters spurn LME Scrap Contango

The futures market continues to incentivise inventory generation It looks like physical deep sea market scrap sentiment is starting to soften, with news of lower-priced bookings circulating after the weekend. It’s surprising that accumulators have chased lower bids for prompt cargoes while the front end of the LME Scrap forward curve demonstrates a Contango well … Continue reading Bulk exporters spurn LME Scrap Contango

Steel Futures rally dwindles

Curves soften slightly as paper trade becomes more cautious Tuesday’s steel futures trading was a relatively quiet affair, with an early rally in onshore Chinese markets failing to stimulate further gains in the wider world. It looks like some ferrous scrap accumulators started to take note of the LME Scrap curve, which still represents a … Continue reading Steel Futures rally dwindles

Careful of the Carry

The LME Scrap Contango is once again incentivising cargo sellers to hold onto their tons It turns out that all Steel Futures needed was a little extra rest and almost all markets stormed out of the traps after the long weekend, with curves pricing significantly higher at the front end through the day. Today’s show-stopper … Continue reading Careful of the Carry

Front End Contangoes conceal longer-dated nervousness

Most steel futures remain well-offered beyond nearby periods Nearby steel futures continued to show strength on Thursday, buoyed by a voaltile yet eventually positive day for Chinese onshore futures. Reports that Chinese imports of semi-finished products are already increasing has stimulated buy-side interest for LME mini-mill complex futures. And the renewed bullishness sparked by last … Continue reading Front End Contangoes conceal longer-dated nervousness

Short covering gains pace

Nearby buy-side interest helps finished product futures slightly higher Tuesday steel futures trading was a more positive affair, with shifting dynamics in the Mediterranean scrap market supporting outright levels for LME Scrap and Rebar futures while short coverers pushed the front end of the US HRC futures curve higher, in what looked like another delayed … Continue reading Short covering gains pace

Busheling futures keep pushing higher

Prompt market bulls crush the US forward Metal Margin CME Busheling futures continued to storm higher on Monday, with spot-focussed traders continuing to bet that the monthly physical price settlement will surprise to the up-side even as paper traders have become accustomed to higher levels. Last week’s mill price hike announcements seem to have added … Continue reading Busheling futures keep pushing higher

US mills spark short covering with price hikes

Steel Futures curves present flatter shapes with confidence mixed With most of Europe on holiday, Friday’s steel futures market focus was on US HRC with two leading producers announcing significant price increases with immediate effect. More bullish traders speculated that mills have done enough to curb capacity in line with dismal demand and rushed to … Continue reading US mills spark short covering with price hikes

Contangoes resume for Steel Futures

Outlook still mixed on EAF prospects Once again the steel futures complex is tending towards Contango, with a softening in sentiment for prompt Deep Sea scrap supply undermining the front end of the LME Scrap curve and a chronic drop in the weekly CRU index print on Wednesday confusing pretty much everyone when it comes … Continue reading Contangoes resume for Steel Futures

Greater Support for Finished Product Futures

But Metal Margin curves continue to point in opposite directions The two tradeable Metal Margin futures curves continued to point in different directions on Monday. Softer sentiment for prompt scrap supply coupled with a tick up in the spot rebar index helped the front end of the LME EAF differential curve edge slightly higher. But … Continue reading Greater Support for Finished Product Futures

EAF Futures diverge by region

Suprise Busheling pay sparks US short-covering EAF futures moved in different directions by region on Thursday, with a large volume nearby CME Busheling purchase sending the US complex quickly higher into the close while the LME was offered lower again. Friday’s opening electronic trading saw a mild reversal of this divergent trend. But we suspect … Continue reading EAF Futures diverge by region

Steel Futures find a floor on short covering

Sell-side pressure persists as traders nervously watch finished products pricing Most steel futures markets found a floor on Wednesday after the previous day’s widespread sell-off, with onshore Chinese futures setting the precedent early on. CME HRC futures moved higher and the Metal Margin forward curve gained as well. LME EAF complex futures were the odd … Continue reading Steel Futures find a floor on short covering

Delayed Drop – Contangoes tested by Complex sell-off

Steel Futures dropped on Tuesday in line with the upside down WTI market Having defied the late collapse in oil prices at Monday’s close, steel futures staged a delayed catch up on Tuesday with all ferrous markets moving sharply lower. A dearth of fresh purchases from Turkish mills saw more inventory-holders move in and hedge … Continue reading Delayed Drop – Contangoes tested by Complex sell-off

Daily Futures Update 20/04/2020

Steel Futures listless amid oil market collapse, US Contangoes persist The huge collapse in the oil market dominated news in all commodities markets on Monday, with the WTI front month trading at negative values (and dramatically so, at that) for the first time. Steel futures was understandedly quiet as paper traders first attempted to consider … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 20/04/2020

Daily Futures Update 16/04/2020

Paper trading rangebound as market awaits finished product price recovery Most steel futures settled slightly lower on Thursday as the paper market watched the physical spot market keenly for signs of support. Turkish mini-mills have floated higher rebar export offers in the hope of recouping higher raw materials costs and to hang on the coat … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 16/04/2020

Daily Futures Update 15/04/2020

Higher Finished Product Offers lead Steel Futures in cautious revival International market finished steel product prices are starting to pick up in as news of China’s gradual restart seems more promising than many expected and steel mills work hard to claw back some of the gains they have paid on raw materials. LME Rebar futures … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 15/04/2020

Daily Futures Update 14/04/2020

US Steel Futures Carry opportunities persist as LME complex edges towards Back The LME mini-mill futures complex continued to shift higher at the front end on Tuesday, in line with another rally in the spot market for obsolete scrap. But concerns about the lack of corresponding recovery in finished product prices pushed both curves towards … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 14/04/2020

Daily Futures Update 01/04/2020

More sellers take advantage of record LME Scrap Carry Trade Opportunities, nearby US steel futures offered lower again While the LME Scrap futures Contango finally had a few more sell-side takers on Wednesday, US-focused steel futures markets maintained the trend of longer-dated periods attracting higher bids than the front end of the curve. Q2-20 US … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 01/04/2020

Daily Futures Update 31/03/2020

LME Scrap Contango provides even more incentive not to sell physical cargoes, Metal Margin futures sag amidst wider market sell-off LME Scrap futures were a contrarian and fairly spectacular mover among steel futures markets on Tuesday, shifting even further into a Contango that so dramatically exceeds the cost of carry we are left wondering why … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 31/03/2020

Daily Futures Update 30/03/2020

EAF conversion margins defy Contango trend amongst outright steel futures, LME diff moves off recent lows Steel futures trading continued to be characterised by widespread Contango curve shapes amidst further weakness at the prompt end on Monday, while paper traders were happy to pay higher prices for far-dated periods. But EAF conversion margin futures remained … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 30/03/2020

Daily Futures Update 27/03/2020

Capacity curtailments support Contango as physical scrap operators shun Carry Trades and liquidate remaining inventory HRC futures continued to push higher on Thursday, capitalizing on the newfound enthusiasm that seems to have stemmed from the US stimulus The seizing of the world steel supply chain has quickly gathered pace this week as the continued spread … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 27/03/2020

Daily Futures Update 26/03/2020

US HRC futures keep rising on stimulus enthusiasm, LME Scrap Contango strengthens HRC futures continued to push higher on Thursday, capitalizing on the newfound enthusiasm that seems to have stemmed from the US stimulus package and supported by reports of steel mill capacity curtailments. But there are some loud alarm bells ringing from the demand … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 26/03/2020

Daily Futures Update 25/03/2020

Stimulus hopes lead steel futures slightly higher, Contango trend sustains US steel futures lead the complex slightly higher on Wednesday as hopes for the nation’s $2.5 trillion slated stimulus package triggered an influx of buyers suddenly happy to call the bottom for steel prices. The move provided further support for the widespread Contango presentation in … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 25/03/2020

Daily Futures Update 28/02/2020

Coronavirus news still dominates as steel market sentiment sours, volatility spikes Steel futures market conditions have been changing constantly and quickly over the past 48 hours, as a global market rout destroyed confidence – volatility has been huge. As a result, our daily marks are less representative than usual. It’s fair to say, the broad … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 28/02/2020

Daily Futures Update 25/02/2020

Steel futures traders buyer the dip but confidence is still restrained Restrained confidence crept back into steel futures markets on Wednesday, with finished products instruments leading the pack slightly higher and providing some support for EAF conversion margin futures in both regions. Exchange Prices at 1630 GMT Disclaimer:  This report is issued by Price Consult … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 25/02/2020

Daily Futures Update 24/02/2020

Futures await direction from physical, EAF curves recover slightly Steel Futures trading moved into a kind of holding pattern on Monday, when sentiment remained fairly firm but buyers were reluctant to push higher while further direction from the physical market is absent. EAF conversion margin futures edged into slightly more bullish territory, with finished products … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 24/02/2020

Daily Futures Update 21/02/2020

Another firm day for steel futures consolidates a bullish week Friday’s steel futures trade consolidated this week’s gains in most markets, with CME Busheling futures moving back into Contango (at the front end) and EAF conversion margin futures closing higher than Monday’s open. Spot market sentiment appears to have turned, with prices rallying in many … Continue reading Daily Futures Update 21/02/2020


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